Doc\25jun07\ 63 the basic inputs required for the psha and the. Other useful outputs of the seismic risk analysis are. An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. Even for those wellversed in this area, there is often confusion over the definition of terms and the introduction of new terms in the evolving field of seismic risk analysis. The sra report summarizes the risk of structural failure of a building due to the vibratory motion caused by the maximum probable design basis seismic event dbe that has a 10percent chance.
This approach to risk analysis is an alternative to those that. Pdf seismic risk analysis of electric power transmission. Pdf seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure. Pdf the role of financial seismic risk analysis and risk quantification has grown rapidly in dealing with important riskmanagement decisions for. This guide provides recommendations for strength and stiffness design requirements, quantifies the effects of including a backup frame, addresses how to control residual drifts in design, and also discusses nonstructural component considerations during resilient design. This topic addresses deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, ground motion attenuation relationships, the u. What is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. Aug 01, 2004 mcguire fully describes the connection between probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha and seismic risk in a quantitative format. Understanding the terms used in a seismic risk analysis can be a daunting task for those who do not consider seismic risk analysis their area of expertise. Seismic risk analysis assesses the probability of occurrence of losses human, social, economic associated with the seismic hazards.
In literature, there are very few studies on seismic risk analysis of networks that take into account all the aspects of the component of risk hazard, vulnerability and loss. The results are in terms of a ground motion parameter such as peak acceleration versus average. This report was written under contract to the american lifelines alliance, a public. The sp3 team, in collaboration with corebrace, recently completed a resilient design guide for brbf buildings. The process of analyzing the risk involves a fourth crucial aspect the mathematical and theoretical. Models from the literature are smoothed for use in reliability analysis with form. Seismic risk, building damage, insurance mechanisms, costbenefit analysis. Strisk detailed earthquake risk analysis for individual. To present the entire process of seismic risk analysis in a clear, logical, and concise manner seismic risk analysis is an integral and systematic framework, in which all individual components e. Seismic design specification for buildings, structures. Scenariobased risk assessment of earthquake disaster.
Monte carlo analysis with pdfs on probabilities only in simplest form of mc analysis, a pdf is estimated for some or all branch probabilities in an event tree. Detailed seismic risk analysis of buildings using structural. Pdf seismic risk analysis of rc building classes gaetano. Earthquake hazard and risk assessment preventionweb. Fortran computer program for seismic risk analysis. Introduction modeling time domain intrusive seismic risk analysis summary uncertainties parametric uncertainty. In simplest form of mc analysis, a pdf is estimated for some or all branch probabilities in an event tree. The goal of seismic hazard analysis sha is to state the probability that something of concern will occur given one or more earthquakes. Illustration of convection process that is the driving mechanism behind plate movements. Earthquake risk analysis may be thought of as encompassing four basic elements.
The following two paragraphs are a paraphrase from kramer 1996. Unfortunately, this book cant be printed from the openbook. A publicprivate partnership to reduce risk to utility and transportation systems from natural hazards and manmade threats seismic guidelines for water pipelines march 2005. Material properties 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 frictionangle 0. Multidisciplinary integrated tools in seismic risk management. Seismic risk analysis for embankment dams an introduction. Various terms, commonly used in seismic risk analysis, are defined as follows.
Pdf this chapter summarizes the current state of the art on seismic risk analysis and management for civil infrastructure systems. Seismic risk analysis pml ebi consulting provides fullspectrum evaluation services to assess the seismic risk of existing or proposed structures for owners, investors, borrowers, tenants, buyers, lenders, and developers. The evaluation of seismic risk generally includes data collection. In order to assess risk to a structure from earthquake shaking, we must first determine the annual. More specifically, sha states the probability that an intensity measure. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is a commonly used. It is related to the failure probability of a homogeneous class of. October, 1968 engineering seismic risk analysis by c. A brief history of seismic risk assessment springerlink. Seismic design specification for buildings, structures, equipment, and systems. Seismic risk analysis of electric power transmission systems.
A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. Hazard from the western united states from the 2014 national seismic. This paper introduces a method for the evaluation of the seismic risk at the site of an engineering project. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil. Issues and alternatives zhenming wang 1 abstractseismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Allin cornell abstract this paper introduces a method for the evaluation of the seismic risk at the site of an engineering project. Seismic risk analysis is not an end in itself rather, the risk must then be. Section seismic risk analysis california department of. What is strisk strisk is a software package used by insurance and mortgage duediligence investigators and structural engineers to perform detailed earthquake risk analysis for individual. The method incorporates the influence of all potential sources of earthquakes and the average activity rates assigned to them. Seismic risk analysis of nuclear power plants addresses the needs of graduate students in engineering, practicing engineers in industry, and regulators in government agencies, presenting the entire process of seismic risk analysis in a clear, logical, and concise manner.
Pdf financial seismic risk analysis of building portfolios. Then, for each iteration of the mc model, a probability is sampled from each pdf. This paper presents probabilistic models and methods for detailed seismic risk analysis of structures using structural reliability methods. Models are implemented in a new program for multimodel reliability analysis. High seismic hazard does not necessarily mean high seismic risk, and vice versa. The content of the book focuses on seismicity of romania, geotechnical earthquake engineering, structural analysis and seismic design regulations, innovative solutions for seismic protection of. Bulletin of the seismological society of america, vol. If you need to print pages from this book, we recommend downloading it as a pdf. Sp3 provides the basic results needed for a pml study, and unique additional. A library of probabilistic models for prediction of seismic risk is presented. Factors that affect a structures seismic risk include. Mariamarilena rogozea, iren adelina moldovan, angela petruta constantin, elena florinela manea, liviu marius manea, cristian neagoe.
Systemic seismic risk analysis of gas distribution. Sep 14, 2009 seismic hazard and seismic risk are fundamentally different. Earthquake hazard is the probability that a certain level of strong. Standard guide for seismic risk assessment of buildings. Aside from giving an order of magnitude of the frequency of core damage associated with earthquakes, which might contribute appreciably to the. Fema 451b topic 5a notes seismic hazard analysis 11 instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a 11 attenuation with distance note the difference between site amplification and attenuation. Aside from giving an order of magnitude of the frequency of core damage associated with earthquakes, which might contribute appreciably to the total frequency of core damage, a seismic psa involves a number of beneficial side effects. These analyses and reports are used by mortgage brokers to make lending decisions, insurance brokers to rate assessments, and building owners to make seismic. Mitigation projects without effective risk assessment may fail to reduce the seismic risk and its consequences.
Seismic risk analysis with reliability methods, part i. Seismic risk assessment at urban scale may be defined as estimation of number of buildings expected to reach a given limit state in the region and time period of interest. Instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic load analysis 9 17 1a, 1b stiffness soft story irregularity vertical structural irregularities irregularity 1a exists if stiffness of. Aei provides seismic risk analysis of buildings in a seismic risk assessment sra report prepared in accordance with astm standards e202616a and e255716a.
Seismic hazard and risk analysis engineering monographs on. Appropriate due diligence according to this guide is not to be construed as technically exhaustive. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking that may occur at a site. Seismic risk analysis of nuclear power plants by weichau xie. Alternatively, the instructor may wish to post the file. Instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic load analysis 9 17 1a, 1b stiffness soft story irregularity vertical structural irregularities irregularity 1a exists if stiffness of any story is less than 70% of the stiffness of the story above or less than 80% of the average stiffness of the three stories above. A result of this type forms an input to the consequence analysis described in chapter 9. Seismic hazard is a natural phenomenon such as ground shaking, fault rupture, or soil liquefaction that is generated by an. Introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Seismic risk analysis pml ebi consulting provides fullspectrum evaluation services to assess the seismic risk of existing or proposed structures for owners, investors, borrowers, tenants, buyers. He begins by defining key terms and presents an overview of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk computations to show how all the elements fit together. An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Doc\25jun07\ 63 the basic inputs required for the psha and the risk analysis are the seismic source model and the ground motion attenuation relations or more accurately ground motion predictive equations.
Seismic hazard is a natural phenomenon such as ground shaking, fault rupture, or soil liquefaction that is generated by an earthquake, whereas seismic risk is the probability that humans will incur loss or damage to their built environment if they are exposed to a seismic hazard. There is a point at which the cost of information obtained or the time required to conduct the seismic risk assessment may outweigh the usefulness of the information and, in fact, may be a material detriment to the orderly and timely completion of a commercial real estate transaction. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems is an invaluable guide for professionals requiring understanding of the impact of earthquakes on buildings and lifelines, and. Pdf seismic risk analysis of rc building classes m. Guidance on probabilisticriskassessmentbased seismic. Seismic hazard and risk analysis engineering monographs. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and. Seismic risk depends not only on the hazard and exposure, but also on models i. Emg has been an integral part of bv for the past 2 years and now, our name has changed to reflect that relationship within this thriving organization. The use and misuse of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard.
Guidance on performing probabilistic risk assessmentbased seismic margin assessments for design certifications section 5. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems is an invaluable guide for professionals requiring understanding of the impact of earthquakes on buildings and lifelines, and the seismic risk assessment and management of buildings, bridges and transportation. Strisk is a software package used by insurance and mortgage duediligence investigators and structural engineers to perform detailed earthquake risk analysis for individual buildings. Pitilakis professor, department of civil engineering, aristotle university of thessaloniki, greece. United states geological survey openfile report, pp.
Seismic hazard and seismic risk in the united states earthquake hazard and emergency management 44 the main lecture material. Seismic hazard and seismic risk are fundamentally different. It offers a systematic and comprehensive introduction to seismic risk analysis of critical engineering structures focusing. Earthquake hazard map showing peak ground accelerations having a 2 percent probability of being exceeded in 50 years, for a firm rock site. Seismic risk analysis of nuclear power plants addresses the needs of graduate students in engineering, practicing engineers in industry, and regulators in government agencies, presenting the entire process.
Then, for each iteration of the mc model, a probability is sampled from each pdf, and the failure risk is calculated for the whole tree. The intensity of ground shaking and other earthquake effects the structure. Mcguire fully describes the connection between probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha and seismic risk in a quantitative format. Understanding the language of seismic risk analysis expert. The seismic risk assessment must identify critical facilitiesneeded to supply key community needs, including at a minimum. The content of the book focuses on seismicity of romania, geotechnical earthquake engineering, structural analysis and seismic design regulations, innovative solutions for seismic protection of building structures, seismic risk evaluation, resiliencebased assessment of structures and management of emergency situations. This approach to risk analysis is an alternative to those that employ the theorem of total probability and conditional probability distributions. Sp3 seismic performance prediction program by haselton. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking. The models are employed in the companion paper for regional seismic risk. New models for earthquake location, regional loss, and building loss are developed.
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